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Early vote-by-mail numbers show advantage for Democratic House candidates

VBM returns by Democrats are outnumbering Republicans in 2nd, 3rd and 7th congressional districts

By David Wildstein, October 09 2020 9:05 pm

Democrats in New Jersey are returning early vote-by-mail ballots at a significantly higher rate than Republicans, 57% to 21%, according to an analysis by the New Jersey Globe.

In the state’s most closely-watched congressional races, more Democrats than Republicans have already had their ballots marked as returned by local election officials.

In New Jersey’s 2nd district, where Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-Dennis) faces Democrat Amy Kennedy, 10.6% of Democrats, 8.4% of Republicans and 3.7% of unaffiliated voters have been recorded as having their ballots returned.

Democrats have a 32.7% to 29.1% edge in voter registration in NJ-2.  In total, 47.4% of ballots marked as returned have come from Democrats, 33.4% from Republicans, and 18.7% from unaffiliateds.

With 24 days remaining until the November 3 election, 7.3% of 2nd district voters have had their VBM ballots recorded as received.

In the 3rd district, where Rep. Andy Kim (D-Moorestown) is being challenged by Republican businessman David Richter, 47.4% of the vote-by-mail ballots that have been logged as received by county election boards have come from Democrats, 30.6% from Republicans, and 21.5% from voters without a party affiliation.

Democrats have a 32.5% to 29.8% registration edge in Kim’s district.

So far, 11.6% of Democrats have turned out, 8.2% of Republicans, and 4.7% of unaffiliated voters.  That’s a total turnout of 7.9%.

The race for Congress in the 7th district, which features a matchup between Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-Ringoes) and Republican Tom Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield), the minority leader of the New Jersey State Senate, 11.5% of registered voters have returned their ballots – and had their ballots recorded into the Statewide Voter Registration System.

Democratic turnout in NJ-7 is at 17.8%, with 10.9% of Republicans and 6.7% of unaffiliateds already having their ballots checked in.

Of the 7th district ballots, 49.2% of them are verified as coming from Democrats, 28.7% from Republicans, and 21.7% from voters who are unaffiliated with either party.

Total voter registration in the 7th is 31.7% Democratic, 30.1% Republican, and 37.3% unaffiliated.

Each of the three districts have also received mail-in ballots from voters registered with the Libertarian, Green or other independent third parties.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released today said that Republicans, by a 53%-38% margin, say they will vote in person.  Among Democrats, 57% say they will cast VBM ballots and 35% will vote in person.  Among independents, it’s 48% VBM, 40% in-person.

New Jersey has mailed 5,94,485 vote-by-mail ballots so far, records show.  That number could change as new voters continue to register – the deadline is October 13 – as previously ineligible voters pro-actively seek ballots from county boards of elections, or if election officials are notified of the death of a voter.

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